Monday, November 5, 2012

2012 Election Forecast

Polls and media analyses finally seem to be converging on election eve. All except the most deluded on the right are moving to projecting the reelection of the 44th President, Barack Obama. There is widespread disagreement about just how close the outcome might be, and how late we might have to wait before the official call is made tomorrow night (pre-midnight or post-midnight), but there is growing agreement that the incumbent will be reelected.

My Electoral Vote projection is Obama 303, Romney 235. That would have Obama winning all "battleground" states other than Florida and North Carolina. And while the popular vote will be closer, it now looks as though Obama will eke out a popular vote victory which approximates two points. My projection is: Obama 50.3%, Romney 48.2%, Others 1.5%.

The battleground states can be arrayed along a continuum from most favorable for Obama to least favorable for Obama. Such a continuum would include:

Nevada, Wisconsin, Iowa, Ohio, New Hampshire, Virginia, Colorado, Florida, North Carolina.

Obama is likely to carry the first five of these, along with Pennsylvania and possibly Minnesota, by 5 points or fewer. The next three states, Virginia, Colorado and Florida appear to be true tossups likely to be decided by no more than 2 points in either direction, with North Carolina leaning slightly in Republican challenger Mitt Romney's direction. The 303 EV total assumes Obama will win both Virginia and Colorado, though the outcomes in those two states and Florida might not be known until Wednesday.

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