Wednesday, November 7, 2012

Obama Dominates Battlegrounds in Reelect

President Obama has been reelected, carrying every battleground state other than North Carolina. In fact, Obama appears to have lost only two states, Indiana and North Carolina, which he carried in 2008. With Florida still uncalled, Obama has 303 Electoral Votes, Romney 206. Obama leads in Florida by fewer than 50,000 votes with approximately 95% of vote counted, and seems virtually certain to win the state's 29 Electoral Votes. Florida would boost Obama's final Electoral Vote total to 332.

Obama's winning margins in the eight battleground states varied from roughly seven points in Wisconsin and Nevada to between one-half and one percent in Florida. In fact, Obama carried 10 states decided by fewer than eight points, while NC was the only state carried by Romney by fewer than eight points.

The margins, as currently reported, in those states won by the President by fewer than eight points, compared to official 2008 results are as follows:

State                  2008 Margin     2012 Margin

Minnesota                10.24%             7.6%
Wisconsin                13.89                6.7
Nevada                    12.50                6.6
New Hampshire         9.61                5.7
Iowa                         9.57                5.6
Pennsylvania           10.32                5.1
Colorado                   8.95                4.7
Virginia                     6.30                3.0
Ohio                         4.54                2.0
Florida                      2.81                0.6

The President's national popular vote margin is about two points, as he leads currently by nearly 2.8 million votes.

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